DFG-NCN 2016/23/G/HS4/01005

Investigating Market Microstructure and shOrt-term pRice forecasTing in intrA-day eLectricity markets (IMMORTAL)

Grant no.: DFG-NCN 2016/23/G/HS4/01005
Funding agencies: German Research Foundation (DFG), Germany & National Science Centre (NCN), Poland
Funding scheme: BEETHOVEN
Funding period: 1.03.2018-28.02.2021 (36 months)
Budget: 768 300 PLN + 239 000 EUR (ca. 1 829 000 PLN in total)
Title in Polish: Badanie mikrostruktury rynku oraz krótkoterminowe prognozowanie cen energii elektrycznej na rynku dnia bieżącego

Research team:

Principal Investigators (Kierownicy):

Senior Investigator (Główny wykonawca):

Investigators (Wykonawcy):

Former investigators (Byli wykonawcy):

Collaborators (Współpracownicy):

– Ph.D. / M.Sc. / B.Sc. student

Aims and scope:

The expansion of renewable generation (wind, solar)and active demand side management (smart meters, smart appliances) has increased the importance of short-term electricity markets, which are seen by many market participants as the future of electricity trading. However, the vast majority of research has been in the context of day-ahead auction trading, the workhorse of power trading in Europe to date. This situation calls for:

  • understanding the intraday market microstructure with its continuous trading for individual load periods up to a few minutes before delivery and direct influence of power system fundamentals, so different from the uniform price auction day-ahead markets, and
  • developing innovative forecasting methods that meet the very specific characteristics of intraday electricity trading.

The main objective of the project is to adequately address these two challenges through an integrated approach composed of three interrelated and developed in parallel tasks.

Tasks:

  1. Understanding the fine structure of intraday electricity markets and development of adequate stochastic models for order flow.
  2. Statistical analysis of the relationships between power system fundamentals and intraday trading, and development of techniques for incorporating fundamental data into forecasting models.
  3. Development and validation of forecasting methods tailored for intraday electricity markets.

Publications:

Peer-reviewed articles in JCR-listed journals

2019 (6+), 2018 (2)

  1. K. Hubicka, G. Marcjasz, R. Weron (2019) A note on averaging day-ahead electricity price forecasts across calibration windows, IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy 10(1), 321-323 (doi: 10.1109/TSTE.2018.2869557). Earlier working paper version available from RePEc: https://ideas.repec.org/p/wuu/wpaper/hsc1803.html
  2. G. Marcjasz, B. Uniejewski, R. Weron (2019) Probabilistic electricity price forecasting with NARX networks: Combine point or probabilistic forecasts?, International Journal of Forecasting (doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.07.002). Working paper version available from RePEc: https://ideas.repec.org/p/wuu/wpaper/hsc1805.html
  3. M. Narajewski, F. Ziel (2019) Econometric modelling and forecasting of intraday electricity prices, Journal of Commodity Markets 100107 (doi: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2019.100107). Working paper version available from arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/1812.09081
  4. M. Narajewski, F. Ziel (2019) Estimation and simulation of the transaction arrival process in intraday electricity markets, Energies 12(23), 4518 (doi: 10.3390/en12234518)
  5. T. Serafin, B. Uniejewski, R. Weron (2019) Averaging predictive distributions across calibration windows for day-ahead electricity price forecasting, Energies 12(13), 2561  (doi: 10.3390/en12132561)
  6. B. Uniejewski, G. Marcjasz, R. Weron (2019) Understanding intraday electricity markets: Variable selection and very short-term price forecasting using LASSO, International Journal of Forecasting 35(4), 1533-1547 (doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.02.001). Working paper version available from RePEc: https://ideas.repec.org/p/wuu/wpaper/hsc1807.html
  7. C. Kath, F. Ziel (2018) The value of forecasts: Quantifying the economic gains of accurate quarter-hourly electricity price forecasts, Energy Economics 76, 411-423 (doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2018.10.005)
  8. G. Marcjasz, T. Serafin, R. Weron (2018) Selection of calibration windows for day-ahead electricity price forecasting, Energies 11(9), 2364 (doi: 10.3390/en11092364). Earlier working paper version available from RePEc: https://ideas.repec.org/p/wuu/wpaper/hsc1806.html

Peer-reviewed articles in non JCR-listed journals

Book chapters

Conference papers

Forthcoming publications, submitted papers and work in progress

  1. R. Weron, F. Ziel (2019) Electricity Price Forecasting, in “Handbook of Energy Economics”, eds. U. Soytas, R. Sari, Routledge, forthcoming. Working paper version available from RePEc: https://ideas.repec.org/p/wuu/wpaper/hsc1808.html
  2. R. Weron, F. Ziel (2019) Forecasting Electricity Prices: A Guide to Robust Modeling (monograph), work in progress.

Developed software components

Project team meetings:

  • 4th IMMORTAL Meeting, 24.09.2019, Satellite to INREC 2019, 25-26.09.2019, Essen, Germany.
  • 3rd IMMORTAL Meeting, 1-2.04.2019, Cambridge, UK.
  • 2nd IMMORTAL Meeting, 26.09.2018, Satellite to INREC 2018, 24-25.09.2018, Essen, Germany.
  • Kick-off meeting, 9-10.05.2018, Wrocław, Poland.