NCN 2025/59/D/HS4/02889

INtegrated forecaSting of electrIcity price, load and renewable Generation for
enHanced informed markeT decisions (INSIGHT)

Grant no.: NCN 2025/59/D/HS4/02889
Funding agencies: National Science Centre (NCN), Poland
Funding scheme: SONATA
Funding period: 1.10.2026-30.09.2029 (36 months)
Budget: 527 040 PLN
Title in Polish: Zintegrowane prognozowanie cen energii elektrycznej, obciążenia i produkcji energii odnawialnej w celu podejmowania bardziej świadomych decyzji rynkowych (INSIGHT)

Research team:

Principal Investigator (Kierownik):

Bartosz Uniejewski (Wrocław, POL 🇵🇱)

Partner Investigator (Wiodący partner zagraniczny):

Jethro Browell (Glasgow, UK )

Investigators (Wykonawcy):

Collaborators (Współpracownicy):

– Ph.D. / M.Sc. / B.Sc. student

Aims and scope:

As more wind and solar power are incorporated into the energy system, the generation of electricity becomes more dependent on the weather. This makes prices more volatile and unpredictable. At the same time, consumers and businesses are starting to respond to these changes by adjusting their electricity usage. These developments make traditional forecasting tools less effective because they typically assume one-directional dependencies (e.g. RES → price or load → price).

The aim of this project is therefore to develop new forecasting methods that reflect how the modern energy system actually works. Rather than predicting electricity prices, demand and renewable generation independently, the project will develop models that forecast them collectively. This joint approach will make it possible to capture the links between weather conditions, renewable energy production, market prices and electricity usage. Understanding these relationships is crucial for ensuring that forecasts remain accurate and useful in a rapidly changing energy landscape.

The research will involve analyzing large datasets, designing advanced forecasting algorithms and evaluating their performance in real-world scenarios. This work is motivated by both scientific and practical considerations: more reliable forecasts could support better decision-making for energy producers, grid operators and policymakers, helping them to manage uncertainty, reduce risks and operate the system more efficiently.

Tasks:

To fill this gap, the INSIGHT project aims to develop forecasting models that treat electricity prices, load and renewable generation as interconnected outputs of a unified modelling structure. Capturing these closed-loop dependencies will enable a more realistic representation of market behavior, which is expected to improve the accuracy of forecasts. The project offers an integrated approach consisting of three complementary tasks performed in parallel:

T1: Developing joint forecasting models for electricity prices and renewable generation;
T2: Building multi-output forecasting models for jointly modelling electricity price and electric load;
T3: Quantifying economic value of joint forecasting approaches for decision support.

Publications:

Peer-reviewed articles in JCR-listed journals

2026 (0+)

Peer-reviewed articles in non JCR-listed journals

Edited volumes / special issues

Book chapters

Conference papers

Forthcoming publications, submitted papers and work in progress

Developed software components

Project team meetings:

Kick-off meeting …